I was asked yesterday to come up with a good dose of pessimism about the Egyptian revolution but was unable. I hadn't been near the news all day but the stories of pro-government thugs (aka the police) coming onto the streets confirmed something that had been lurking in the back of my mind.
Since 1989 the globally common notion of "revolution" has been somewhat circumscribed. It roughly goes thus: people come out onto the streets, something-something-something, a new government is formed. The crucial X factor, an actual uprising, conquering the state is missing (in the recent past it has been replaced by US intervention, e.g. the colour revolutions). The job in Egypt is to oust Mubarak and break up the NDP. I heard people were arguing whether to stay in Tahrir Square or march on the Presidential Palace I thought "people are looking over their shoulders again".
Revolutionary crowds are not like armies, they cannot be expected to advance and retreat in good order. Revolutions tend not to stand still but either advance or fall back. Maybe the revolution has missed its chance, maybe the police violence will spur the revolution on to finish the job. Either way the next few days will be crucial.
Victory to the Egyptian revolution.
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